Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Federal Budget 2007

November 2006

The Federal Budget will be delivered in May 2007, an election year.

The following are my predictions about some of its politically-motivated inclusions:

  • re-announcement about changes to tax on superannuation. these were announced in May 2006, but won't become effective till July 2007. They will be announced again.
  • More money for skills training, to address the chronic skills shortage. It is unlikely that TAFE will benefit by any significant amount, despite its obvious role.
  • More money for education
  • More tax relief for individuals: standard election-year practice, but they might not be implemented until 2008. We will also be reminded of all past tax cuts.
  • Easing of harsh welfare policies: this might not be in the budget, but otherwise announced
  • more money for the military services: recruitment and equipment
  • more money for , and greater involvement in, water issues. (a State responsibility)
  • more money for health, although not much of it will be for public hospitals and other areas of State responsibilities.
  • The Treasurer has already foreshadowed that the mining and energy boom is starting to sag, and this will adversely affect economic growth, tax revenue, export earnings (& balance of payments). Expected growth will be announced at the top end of estimated ranges, so it looks good.
  • Money to combat gloabl warming: - more funding to energy companies under the banner of global warning

The sale of Medibank Private will either occur early in 2007 (February - April) or the sale will be quietly dropped. John Howard will hope it is forgotten by Opposition parties.

See also my posting about the election:

The Analyst