Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Difficult Choices for Libs

Today, the contest for the Liberal Party leadership narrowed after Tony Abbott withdrew because he would not get enough votes. The leadership will be contested by Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson.

Turnbull seems to have won a number of vox populi polls in the media. Whether that is reflected in the party room is another matter. Of the two, Malcolm Turnbull is the better speaker, and more words of substance seem to come from him than ever came from Brendan Nelson.

Of the contenders for the Deputy Leader, SA's Chris Pyne and WA's Julie Bishop are the most discussed in the media. While he is a qualified in Law, Chris Pyne seems to only ever have worked for the Liberal Party, both before entereing Parliament in 1993, and as a Member of Parliament. This almost total lack of real-world work might well hinder his ambitionis. Julie Bishop has worked as a solicitor and barrister for almost 20 years, had experience on the board of SBS and in an institute for managers.

Andrew Robb, the former Federal Party Director, has less experience in Parliament, but more political nous that Chris Pyne or Julie Bishop, and might well have a steadying influence on Malcolm Turnbull.

The Liberal Party will elect its new leaders tomorrow (Thursday). My prediction, based on CV's and Ministerial & political competence is: Malcolm Turnbull & Andrew Robb.

What I think the Liberal Party will do? I think they will elect Malcolm Turnbull as Leader, with Andrew Robb as Deputy; Chris Pyne and Julie Bishop might withdraw, leaving Robb unopposed. They'll be rewarded with shadow Ministries with increased standing in the Party Room.


Post Script - Thursday
Today the Federal Liberal Party elected Brendan Nelson as its leader; Julie Bishop as Deputy Leader. Given Brendan Nelson's somewhat taciturn manner, Julie Bishop will provide some "personality" to the leadership. She should be able to hold her own in Parliament, given her prior performances.