Sunday, November 18, 2007

Election 2007 Prediction

With the Federal election next Saturday, and many pollsters predicting a Labor landslide, the following is my prediction, based on a combination of Antony Green's Election Predictor at the ABC's Election 2007 site, polls, "history" and "art of prediction" (whatever that is!)

Labor: 76

In fact, the predictor suggested Labor 78; Coalition 70; Other 2.
However, I believe there are a few seats that will not conform to the "State-based swing" result: The Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong will possibly be retained, on the back of a "sympathy vote"; the Seat of Dobell will be a 50-50 proposition, as will be Malcolm Turnbull's seat of Wentworth in Eastern Sydney, and the SA seat of Boothby. Eden-Maonaro will be won by the ALP.

Now, we just need to wait and see.