Benazir Bhutto's Legacy

Benazir Bhutto: 1953 - 2007

Benazir Bhutto has been buried before sunset, in the family mausoleum, next to her father.

She persisted with her drive to democracy for Pakistan, and was assassinated on 27-Dec-2007, after a rally before the scheduled elections.

Benazir Bhutto was first elected as Prime Minister in 1988; and again in 2003. It is likely that the charges of corruption brought by Pakistan Presidents Khan and Leghari. Khan had disagreements with both Bhutto and the PPP; and with the military, whose legislative power he sought to restrict. Leghari, also from Bhutto's Pakistan People Party is reported by Wikipedia to have succumbed to blackmail in bringing charges against Benazir Bhutto.

Benazir Bhutto was a woman in a man's world. Muslim societies do not easily tolerate women in positions of power: her family's strong political background and her family name undoubtedly helped.

Benazir Bhutto could become Pakistan's martyr to democracy. Maybe!

President Musharraf was, until recently, both head of the military, and President. The Military will not easily give up its power and political influence. Those who riot after Bhutto's death do themselves and their country no good. It is very likely that elections scheduled for 8-January-2008 will be cancelled, a state of emergency declared, and both Musharraf and the military will retain political control.

If they do, Pakistan will remain a divided nation. One group will have money, and/or political influence or power; the rest will have nothing, as they have now.

Benazir Bhutto's legacy could be that millions have hope of democracy, and a fairer system of government. If they don't get it, Pakistan could well become unstable, with pockets of rebellion, in a country that has somewhere near 100 nuclear weapons. Frightening!

John

Merry Christmas 2007

What is Christmas about? Is it about presents, family, holidays away, frantic mad shopping, idiocy and death on our roads? All of these happen at Christmas time, or XMAS, as it is sometimes abbreviated. The 'X' in XMAS comes from the Greek letter χ (chi), which starts the Greek word for Christ.


Christmas is a secular festivity, and a religious one. Christians celebrate the birth of Christ, in a manger, at Bethlehem. Other religions celebrate the birth of their gods and prophets, but the celebration of Chrtistmas in our society has also become a social celebration.



As we celebrate Christmas, many people will attend church ceremonies. Religious leaders will publish a Christmas message. My hope is that people will give to those less fortunate, spend time with family and friends, build understanding with other people, and that people reflect on the meaning of Christ's message in today's world. By doing so, may they realise the need for all people to work together for peace, hope for tolerance, and act justly.


Merry Christmas, ... and Happy New Year.


John

PS some will say that the above was full of idealism, but without idealism, we condemn ourselves to accept the otherwise unacceptable.

Haneef: Court Rejects Andrews' Appeal

The full bench of the Federal Court of Australia has upheld a previous court's decision to grant Dr Haneef his work visa. The previous Immigration Minister, Kevin Andrews, had made a political decision that Dr Haneef was not of good character, because his second cousins in Britain had his (British) mobile phone card, and had allegedly been involved in terrorist activity.

(Photo: http://www.smh.com.au/) The political decision came after the courts had dismissed charges of aiding terrorists against Dr Haneef. The "character test" was applied with Minsterial discretion on the basis of the alleged actions of his cousins, at a time when Dr Haneef was in Australia.

Previous comments about "the Haneef case" can be found here (there are several posts in July 2007)

Mr Andrews, as then Minister, appealed. The Federal Court disagreed with him on matters of law.

Dr Haneef, on a pilgrimage to Mecca, can return to Australia to work, if he wants. The Queensland Government has said that he will be welcome to apply, if he satisfies visa and doctor registration procedures.

There are serious questions that we need to ask about the process used, and motives of, previous Minister Andrews. Among them are:

• what were his political motives?
• was he acting under instructions from former Prime Minister Howard?
• was there any breach of the "separation of powers"?
• was AFP Commisioner Mick Keelty acting in the interests of, and with advice from, the government?

Our democracy needs to be robust, and we need to be able to trust governments, and Ministers. I'm not sure we could trust the previous Coalition Government.

John

Tax Cuts Inflationary

The ABC and other media are reporting that Access Economics has warned the (new) Federal Labor Government that its promised tax cuts will be inflationary. During the election campaign, John Howard's Coalition Government promised $34 Billion in personal tax cuts; Kevin Rudd promised $31 Billion. In the midst of the election campaingn the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%), an unprecedented intervention during an election campaign.

In October, I reported that the promised tax cuts would be inflationary. I stated:

"(tax cuts) by themselves, they will be inflationary. The economy will have to produce nearly $50 Billion of EXTRA GDP. It is already groaning under the strain of other pressures such as the US sub-prime mortgage market, rising oil prices, rising food prices, and rising prices of other goods ... We need responsible economic management, not inflationary tax cuts."

Now, it seems that Access Economics has confirmed that view. They also point out that finding cuts might be politically unpopular, and mentioned "middle-class welfare" as one area where cuts could be made. "Middle class welfare" is a term often used to describe Federal Government houndouts that are not means tested, and provided to people who are not in need of the money. It is a policy that was heavily used by the Coalition Government to win votes. Cutting it will be fraught with political danger, even if it is tapered and means-tested.

Treasurer Wayne Swan has a difficult task to deliver ANY tax cuts, and still find sufficient extra savings to fund them, and increase his budget surplus from 1% to a more responsible 1.5% of GDP.

John

Political Climate Change At Bali

The US has agreed to a compromise plan to start talks on a new climate change protocol, to take effect after obligations under the existing Kyoto Protocol expire in 2012.

Every other represented country, or group such as the European Union (EU) agreed to the compromise plan. The 190 members of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to the plan after almost 2 weeks of negotiations, and after the return of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. He returned to Bali to urge, with diplomatically plain language, recalcitrant countries to agree to the 'Bali Roadmap' for the good of humanity. I'm sure the US will soon find economic, trade, and foreign policy reasons to justify their change of heart.

There was certainly a sense of desperation as Kevin Rudd told his team, and Penny Wong, in particular, to do "whatever it takes" negotiate a settlement. Climate change is a priority.

So, what next for Australia? I believe we need to look at the following, from a national perspective:

• reduce "base load" electricity demand, and hence our reliance on coal. The term "clean coal" is deceptive - coal is dirty, and it does pollute.
• reduce unnecessary lighting in office buildings at night
• reduce the use of "off-peak" (night-time) electric hot water systems, and install more solar hot water systems, with gas backup.
• increase the use of wind farms
• increase the use of solar electricity generation on houses, and large business buildings, especially where buildings have air conditioning installed
• mandate national building design codes that increase the use of passive heating and cooling (verandahs, awnings & blinds, building aspect, insulation and construction materials)

All of this will involve significant changes to aspects of our economy, and our individual and collective thinking - we will need to increase investments in some areas of our economy and reduce it in other areas.

It won't be easy, and we do need our political leaders to take short-term hard decisions for the longer term benefit, while still being mindful of the social effects That is, after all, what we pay them to do.

In business speak, we need to undertake a process called Business Process Engineering - we need to fundamentally change what and how we do things.

John

Libs a Half-Nelson Basket Case

As John Howard enjoys his new-found, but unwanted, leisure time, the Federal Liberal Party is in leadership turmoil. It has been revealed that Malcolm Turnbull was unhappy about the leadership election, with now two members who have since lost their seats voting, and two senators whose planes were delayed not allowed to vote. Brendan Nelson won the leadership by just three votes.

The reality is that with John Howard gone, and Peter Costello declining, there is a lack of clear leadership within the Liberal Party - hence the divided vote. One of the consequences of John Howard's dominance and "strong leadership" is that, apart from the anointment on Peter Costello, the leadership skills of other members was suppressed and its development stopped.

While both men are aspirational leaders, neither yet has the charisma AND political skills to lead the Liberal Party to a future victory. It is unlikely that Brendan Nelson has the ability to charm teh electorate to lead the Liberal Party to an election win in the foreseeable future; and Malcolm Turnbull is seen as too ill-disciplined and prone to "shoot his mouth off". The Federal Liberal Party has similar leadership woes to those that Labor had after Paul Keating lost, and left.

There are not many leadership options yet, apart from Brendan Nelson or Malcolm Turnbull. We might well have the simmering divisions can that turn a political party into a "basket case". That is something that NSW State Party Director Geoff Selig warned against, but probably can't yet stop.

John

Crean Speaks on Climate Change

Simon Crean is in Bali for Trade talks - appropriate, given that is his portfolio. But he seems to have spoken out of turn on climate change. He has more experience than to do that. Mr Crean said that developing countries, including China and India, must commit to much tougher emission targets before Australia would commit to a post-Kyoto Agreement on Climate Change.

Worse, Mr Crean then went on to say that Australia would not commit to any binding targets till next year - at least till after the report on the economics of climate change is handed to the Federal Government.

Already Prime Minister Rudd has said that what Mr Crean suggested about developing countries is not the Government's policy. It would seem that Trade Minister Crean has spoken out on an area that is not his portfolio, and made suggestions that are not (officially) government policy. Nevertheless, climate change will have an effect on trade, and it is appropriate for the Trade Minister to make comments about climate change - they just need to be consistent with government policy.

There is a danger that Kevin Rudd will seek to assert HIS "strong leadership". The problem with that is that "strong leadership" often seeks to dominate by stifling discussion, even among colleagues. This is the type of control used by former Prime Minister John Howard - to his ultimate detriment, the detriment of the Liberal Party, and to the detriment of good policy for the Australian people.

Kevin Rudd will certainly need to discuss the problem with Simon Crean. Ministers must not become compliant servants of the Prime Minister. They need clear direction, a deep understanding of Government Policy, and need to learn to be trusted to speak on matters that affect their portfolio.

John

T-Card Project A Failure

T-Card is supposed to be the new integrated, electronic ticketing system to cover public transport on buses, trains and ferries. Last Month (Nov-07), the State Government gave notice of its intention to cancel the contract, unless the company (ERG) can demonstrate a working system within twenty days.

On 3 December 2007, ERG gave a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange, saying it was "well placed to implement the system on a wide scale by 2009". ERG claims to have implemented similar systems in Melbourne, Singapore, Rome and San Francisco. The question then is, "why invent a new system, when it already has successful existing systems?"

On 9 November the NSW Transport Minister, John Watkins, said "Enough is enough. ... This has been a very frustrating project." The system was supposed to be working before the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games.

What makes a successful project? In my opinion a successful project satisfies the following criteria:

• the customer is satisfied. Clearly this is not the case, with the customer, the NSW Government preparing to stop the project.
• the system works as intended. Again, this is clearly not the case.
• the project is finished on time. 2007 is well past the expected completion in early 2000. The Auditor-General's office in its Report to Parliament 2006 Volume 5 p338 stated "We are not aware of any further remedy for delays. (in the T-Card project)"
• the project is completed satisfactorily on budget. While NSW has spent $64 million, it has not made all the payments, becasue the contract included penalties for non-completion of milestones. Since it seems unlikely a working system won't be forthcoming for nealy another two years, and at unknown cost, there are good aruments for terminating the project.

Good Project Management requires that, at each stage of the project, a review is conducted to determine whether it is worthwhile continuing. It seems to me that ERG has been more interested in continuing the project, hoping to retrieve the golden egg of taxpayer money, even when technical and other difficulties seem to have indicated otherwise.

It would seem to be a project worthy of cancellation. In future the NSW Government, through the Dept of Commerce, should oversee projects, and insist on having representatives on the project oversight committee, and on project teams.

John

Koperberg Steps Into A Straight Right

NSW Labor Minister Phil Koperberg has stepped aside pending results from a preliminary police investigation into acts of domestic violence allegedly committed 20 years ago. The time is irrelevent, and it should be investigated. Premier Morris Iemma's hand was forced when two people called hi soffice to speak to him about it. at that point, Mr Iemma aasked his Director-General to refer the matter to the police. Appropriately, he would not name the two people who called his office.

But what of the underlying politics? Who has the knives out for Mr Koperberg? The allegations surfaced in 2006 before the March 07 state election, and were denied then. Paul Gibson, then a Labor MP, had a 10 year affair with the former Mrs Katherine Koperberg, and there appears to be bad blood between the two men. After the election in March, allegations about Paul Gibson' salleged violence towards Sandra Nori surfaced. He was denied a ministry. Police later dropped the investigation for lack of viable evidence.

Now, Paul Gibson seems to have copy of Mrs Koperberg's affidavit alleging assault on her and her daughter. So do some reporters.

The issue has become both political and the subject of a police investigation. It would seem there is some dirty politics, but violence should never be tolerated - just ask Paul Gibson.

John

Education A Learning Curve for Labor

As Julia Gillard prepares Labor's Education agenda for the two Cabinet meetings before Christmas, she should pause and consider some of the concepts proposed.

Access to a computer at school for every Year 9 -12 student is readily achievable, but it will also need to be considered in conjunction with the broadband for schools policy. The Federal Government will need to meet with state governments, Catholic Education Offices, and independent schools to ensure that computers provided are appropriate.

The trades in schools policy requires much more work, and probably needs rethinking. This is especially true for regional areas where it is unlikely that each school would have sufficient interested and committed students or resources to create classes in multiple trades areas.

A more practical solution might be to provide incentives for schools to allow students to enrol in courses at TAFE, where that is available. In most states, there is a program which allows students to study TAFE courses as part of their Yr 11 and Yr 12 studies. Classes often include students from several schools, and they gain from the expertise of TAFE teachers, and from the usually, better resources provided by TAFE . Delivery by TAFE would be more cost-efficient, and provide a wider range of trades for study than could be provided by placing one trade class at every school.

While providing resources directly to schools is electorally and superficially popular, ultimately, using existing TAFE systems would provide better outcomes for the economy as well, because more students could be trained in more trades areas more efficiently, using qualified trades teachers who know their industry.

John

Training Labor's New Ministers

Having been elected to government on 24 Nov 2007, Kevin Rudd has announced his new ministers. It includes two members who have previously been Ministers: John Faulkner and Simon Crean. Warren Snowden and Nick Sherry have had experience as Parliamentary Secretaries. The full list will shortly appear at the Australian Parliament House website . Three members of Cabinet have less than six years Parliamentary experience: Penny Wong (5); Peter Garrett (3); and Tony Burke (3).

While Kevin Rudd will have appointed minders to help his new team, it is important that neither they, nor Kevin Rudd, rule his ministers in the same way that John Howard did. Such close control would increase the risk that Kevin Rudd's Ministers will be as stifled, robotic, and mere 'appendages of power', as were many of John Howard's ministers.

It is likely that some will make mistakes. Unless the mistakes are serious, new Ministers need to be able to learn and be guided, without the heavy handed "I'll tell you what to say, when, where, how and to whom you will say it" approach that John Howard used.

That is, Ministers need a "structured workplace learning" program, similar to those used in trade and vocational training. This will help ensure that Ministers grow into their job and develop Ministerial skills that are both specific to their portfolios, and which could be applied elsewhere.

Such a program will not only help to create more effective ministers, but also ministers that more open and responsive. That could only benefit everyone, and strengthen our democracy, and develop trust from the media and voters.

John

Difficult Choices for Libs

Today, the contest for the Liberal Party leadership narrowed after Tony Abbott withdrew because he would not get enough votes. The leadership will be contested by Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson.

Turnbull seems to have won a number of vox populi polls in the media. Whether that is reflected in the party room is another matter. Of the two, Malcolm Turnbull is the better speaker, and more words of substance seem to come from him than ever came from Brendan Nelson.

Of the contenders for the Deputy Leader, SA's Chris Pyne and WA's Julie Bishop are the most discussed in the media. While he is a qualified in Law, Chris Pyne seems to only ever have worked for the Liberal Party, both before entereing Parliament in 1993, and as a Member of Parliament. This almost total lack of real-world work might well hinder his ambitionis. Julie Bishop has worked as a solicitor and barrister for almost 20 years, had experience on the board of SBS and in an institute for managers.

Andrew Robb, the former Federal Party Director, has less experience in Parliament, but more political nous that Chris Pyne or Julie Bishop, and might well have a steadying influence on Malcolm Turnbull.

The Liberal Party will elect its new leaders tomorrow (Thursday). My prediction, based on CV's and Ministerial & political competence is: Malcolm Turnbull & Andrew Robb.

What I think the Liberal Party will do? I think they will elect Malcolm Turnbull as Leader, with Andrew Robb as Deputy; Chris Pyne and Julie Bishop might withdraw, leaving Robb unopposed. They'll be rewarded with shadow Ministries with increased standing in the Party Room.

John

Post Script - Thursday

Today the Federal Liberal Party elected Brendan Nelson as its leader; Julie Bishop as Deputy Leader. Given Brendan Nelson's somewhat taciturn manner, Julie Bishop will provide some "personality" to the leadership. She should be able to hold her own in Parliament, given her prior performances.

John

Fixing Public Hospitals

One of Kevin Rudd’s election platforms was to negotiate better funding for public health with the states. The requirement is better health administration. His Kevin07 wesite says:

“Under Labor's Plan, in order to access funds, the States will be required to sign up to achieving specified health outcomes, such as:· Reducing avoidable hospitalisations and readmissions to hospital;· Reducing non-urgent accident and emergency presentations;· Reducing waiting times for those people who require essential hospital services such as elective surgery; and· Providing more appropriate non-acute care for older Australians.”

There are some specific problems that we, individually, collectively and politically must face. There has developed over some years a culture of division between the states and commonwealth, based largely on political differences and prejudices. This has lead to:

1. cost-and-blame-shifting, as each tries to limit the $ exposure for “its” responsibilities.
   A reduction in the proportion of GDP provided by the commonwealth for public health care provided by the states. At the same time, the Commonwealth was happy to provide funds to support private health insurance (companies)and private hospitals.
2. The costs of providing health care have been increasing at a rate faster than inflation and economic growth, and the states have borne the brunt of extra funding required for public hospitals
3. Increasing “gaps” in health care, resulting from the previous two conditions.
   

Recent events in NSW at RNS emergency dept and RPA maternity are examples of how health care and its administration has been driven by budget constraints and not health planning and funding.

Kevin Rudd is offering an extra $2 billion over 4 years. Economically he can’t just pump money into the economy – he will need to restrain spending or eliminate unnecessary government spending to maintain an economically neutral position. The Commonwealth and States, and NSW in particular, will need to develop significant restructure plans for health administration, to be implemented over 5 years. Its likely effects will include significant changes in personnel, business process reengineering to change the way and culture of doing things, and higher levels of political accountability and responsibility.

The effects of such changes will take at least ten years to be fully felt. This requires planning well beyond the 4-years of budget forward estimates, but it must be done.

John

Liberal Woes Self-Inflicted

The Liberal Party implosion since it lost the election last Saturday is not surprising.

The leadership void and lack of clear direction has occurred because: John Howard ruled “his” government with an iron fist; he used his own staff to monitor and micro-manage his Ministers and Parliamentary Secretaries; he used some government members to ensure MP’s and Senators complied with his wishes. In their compliance, Liberal Ministers, MP’s and Senators have served the interests of the Liberal Party – a service Peter Costello mentioned when declining to be nominated as “leader of the Opposition”

Such “strong”, overbearing and dominating leadership stifles proper discussion, suppresses opposing views, inhibits the desirable effects of conscience & ethical principles, and stifles leadership qualities. One measure of the dominance exerted by John Howard is the number of his former Senators and Ministers now saying that they “told him (John Howard) to go”; Peter Costello has declined the leadership, having been “promised” the Prime Ministership which is now not there for him. They can say this because John Howard is no longer their leader, and he's not in Parliament any more.

Senior Liberal Party members are also now saying they should “dump WorkChoices” and support ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, and its attendant environmental targets. This is probably the correct policy direction, but it will seem to smack of hypocrisy, given their previous vigorous public defence of John Howard's position.

It also put members of the Coalition in the position of defending John Howard, even if they had misgivings. Here the list extends to WorkChoices; funding of public education, public hospitals and health; “children overboard”; attack dogs on the wharves; the Tampa affair, where Australia clearly breached its obligations under International Maritime Law; and immigration detention centres & “the Pacific Solution” to refugees. The drive to make unemployment at less than 4%, with rising inflation from the volume of money pumped into the economy hardly smacks of responsible economic management that would “keep interest rates at the lowest levels for 30 years”.

John Howard, driven by his own obsession with power, has done much to tear apart the fabric and principles of the Liberal Party, and poisoned the political careers of many Liberal Party MP’s and Senators.

John

Rudd as PM But Who'll Lead the Lost?

Australia has a new Prime Minister-elect. Kevin Rudd claimed victory after a phone call and concession speech by John Howard. As the first Labor Prime Minister for 11 years, Kevin Rudd has become a hero to his party.

Both leaders have displayed graciousness - they're obviously not in Parliamentary Question Time - and are to be congratulated for that.

John Howard could well lose his seat, Bennelong, which he held since 1974. As the Liberal and National Party, which also lost seats, began preparing for life in opposition, there came another blow. Just hours after ex-Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer was reported saying that "the best thing the Liberal Party can do now is get behind Peter Costello as leader", Peter Costello issued a statement saying he will NOT contest the leadership of the Liberal Party! Dear Alexander, did you not call Peter first?! Peter Costello is the Liberal Party's best performer in Parliament. There are few other worthwhile candidates: they will probably have to choose between Brendan Nelson (of marginal competence as a Minister), Malcolm Turnbull (known to leak Cabinet discussions, and waver under political pressure), or 'mad-monk' Tony Abbott.

Even if he retains his seat - a big IF - John Howard will not lead the Liberal Party. Peter Costello's decision not to lead them will leave the Liberal Party floundering, probably for some time, simply because there is no-one with the same political strength to replace John Howard. That was crushed by Howard's iron fist in the Cabinet and Party Room. Disunity and internal mistrust could be the characteristics of the new opposition. None will want to face Parliamentary questions on on WorkChoices, Iraq, Health and education funding, Federal-State relationships, or the Nationalist principles John Howard wanted.

John

NSW Libs' Right-Wing Attack Lindsay

Five Liberal Party members have used leaflets giving false information about Muslim group supporting the ALP has backfired.

The Muslim groups on the leaflet doesn't exist, and the statements about the ALP are false. Involved in the distribution are at least 5 Liberal Party members and supporters. The most significant members of the group that misrepresented Muslims and the ALP are:

• NSW Liberal Party executive member, Jeff Egan
• Retiring Liberal MP Jackie Kelly's husband, Garry Clark
• Greg Chijoff, husband of the Liberal candidate fro Lindsay

Five Liberal Party members have been expelled, including Mr Egan. While John Howard distanced himself and condemned the action, Jackie Kelly, as retiring MP and wife of one of the participants, told the ABC it was a "joke". She said it was like a "Chaser" TV show stunt. While she thought it a joke, the Liberal Party was in full "damage control" over the stupidity of the action - an action that might be likened to Mark Latham's intimidatory handshake with John Howard, and showed the at temped bullying by him. Some will liken it to Mr Howard's "children overboard" mistruth.

Here, the action has racist and xenophobic undertones, and both Kelly and Chijoff are probably tarnished as part of the racist faction within Right-wing of the NSW Liberal Party. That the matter has been passed from the Electoral Commission to the Federal Police should stop them laughing.

John

Leaders' To-Do Lists

Kevin Rudd released his top5 "To-Do" list in an interview with The Sun-Herald last weekend.

They were:

• climate change
• education
• health
• broadband
• computers in schools

This gives him the "soft", people-centred tasks. Signing the Kyoto Protocol and setting interim targets is largely symbolic, but allows us to have a greater say at the next round of negotiations in Bali. The Coalition won't sign, and we'll be in the back blocks, left out of key negotiations.

Education, health, fast broadband (especially for regional areas) and computers in schools will appeal to most sections of the community.

John Howard has reacted with:

• strong economy (growth)
• security
• "election promises"
• Takeover of the Murray-Darling Basin
• talking about recognition of Indigenous people in the Constitution

The trouble for Mr Howard is that economic growth is not what is needed, and his election promises, if implemented, will drive inflation for years after he retires. Further, his economic record speaks of WorkChoices, a term he now avoids, but which he did not tell voters about last time.

He gave no detail about further "security" legislation that he wants. (shades of WorkChoices?)

John Howard believes his use of "economic management" will win votes. If voters think about his promises, and the current state of the economy, it could be political poison for him.

John

Election 2007 Prediction

With the Federal election next Saturday, and many pollsters predicting a Labor landslide, the following is my prediction, based on a combination of Antony Green's Election Predictor at the ABC's Election 2007 site, polls, "history" and "art of prediction" (whatever that is!)




In fact, the predictor suggested Labor 78; Coalition 70; Other 2.
However, I believe there are a few seats that will not conform to the "State-based swing" result: The Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong will possibly be retained, on the back of a "sympathy vote"; the Seat of Dobell will be a 50-50 proposition, as will be Malcolm Turnbull's seat of Wentworth in Eastern Sydney, and the SA seat of Boothby. Eden-Maonaro will be won by the ALP.

Now, we just need to wait and see.


John

Howard vs Labor - the Election Promise Effects

Both major parties have now launched their election campaigns. We've had almost 4 weeks of the unofficial election campaign where travel and living expenses of our politicians have been paid by taxpayers. Many would argue that, ethically, once the election writs have been issued by the Governor-General, political parties should be paying, not the taxpayer.

John Howard, at the Liberal Party launch, promised an extra $9.5Billion to voters. This brings his total to almost $65 Billion.

Kevin Rudd, claiming the economic conservative high ground, promised an extra $2.3Billion at the Labor Party's launch. this brought his total to almost $57Billion.

The possible effects of election spending by the end of 2009 are:

• Home Loan Interest Rates under John Howard: 11% - 12%
• Home Loan Interest Rates under Kevin Rudd: 9% - 10%

The inflation figure from John Howard's spree is exacerbated by his ideological, but economically bad, drive to put ever more money into the hands of middle-class and wealthy taxpayers, many of whom spend it on consumer goods. This drives consumption inflation, one of the current problems identified by the Reserve Bank.

Of course, John Howard could have some "non-core" promises that he won't implement; and Kevin Rudd could increase the amount of budget surplus retained from 1% to 1.5%-2% during the current boom.

John Howard has gone for the "Go for Growth" slogan - the problem is that there is no room for growth without inflation. Both he and Peter Costello are ideologically locked into retaining only 1% of GDP, even as the economy is overheating and creating inflation. Excessive growth is NOT what the economy needs at the moment.

Kevin Rudd has gone for the "New Leadership" slogan. If elected, his leadership will be tested by the economic conditions he inherits. An overheated economy with rising inflation and significant overseas pressures. Increasing the retained budget surplus from 1% to 1.5% will be a challenge.


John

Non-Exclusive Interview - Rudd & Howard Talk

"Mr Howard, thanks for your time. I know you're busy with the election."

"Yes - so much money to give away - baby bonus, tax cuts... And so many Liberal seats to try to keep."

"But won't that be inflationary? Won't the economy suffer?"

"Inflation, schminflation - look, I won't be around next election so it won't matter .... to me at least. That'll be Peter's job, if I win"

"Yes, Mr Rudd, thanks for your time. You've also promised tax cuts."

"Yes, John, but ours aren't inflationary. See, I'm an economic conservative, unlike that economic thug, John Howard. He just throws money around willy-nilly. And it's not even his money."

"But the Reserve Bank says that inflation is likely to be higher till at least 2009, and more interest rate rises are likely. That will affect homeowners with a mortgage."

"John, Janette and I own our own home, so they won't affect us. And they won't affect the rich too much either."

"Me, too".

"Don't either of you care?"

(Howard) "Is that a rich private entity I can give taxpayer money to?"
(Rudd) "Of course the Labor Party cares - we are the caring party."

(Howard) "Any interest rate rises are because of union thugs - it's not my fault. It's not, mum"

John