The Clubs Fight Back

This week, the Hotel and Clubs industries fight back against the introduction of measures to limit poker machine use. The measures would have poker machine gamblers nominate an amount they are prepared to lose. There are few who benefit directly from the profits: pubs, clubs, the State Government. Individual Hotels, Clubs and their Industry Associations make political donations to the major parties.

New NSW Liberal Premier Barry O’Farrell has come out in support of the Pubs and Clubs in their fight with the Federal (Labor) Government. It is appropriate to ask some questions:

• How much did the pubs, clubs, their industry associations, and their lobbyists donate to the Liberal & National Parties in NSW before the election? (this will be available at a later date from the Electoral Commission, but it requires some work to determine lobbyists affiliations)
• Mr O’Farrell seems to have issued a press release, but then has not been available for questioning. Why?
• How much does the State Government stand to benefit over the next 4 years from poker machine taxes?
• Does Mr O’Farrell believe all pubs and clubs conform to the Responsible Service of gambling?

John

O’Farrell Finds ‘Black Hole”

(This post has been updated on 30-March))

New NSW Premier, Barry O'Farrell, has released the typical new government "we found a black hole in the budget" media release.
It was not unexpected - almost every new government does it, whether Coalition or Labor.
Mr O'Farrell released a media statement headlining a "$4.5 Billion black hole".
But where did the $4.5 Billion ‘black hole’ come from? The answer lies in events since the last estimates were released.

• the last estimates were released on 15-Dec-2010 and are shown below. the ‘latest estimate’ is reportedly what was given to Mr O’Farrell. The full document is at http://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/?a=19225 

Budget Results	2010-11 $m	2011-12 $m	2012-113 $m	2013-14 $m
1/2 Yearly Review (Dec-2010)	167	176	432	129
Latest estimate		204	-405	-1,200
Change from 1/2 Yearly Review		28	-837	-1,329

 

Even with the updated figures the estimates give a TOTAL deficit for the period 2012-14 is estimated at $2.15 Billion, not the $4.5 billion quoted by Mr O’Farrell, which includes a new treasury guesstimate, the basis of which is  unknown. Budgets for 2011-12 – 2014-15 will be controlled by Mr O’Farrell and his Treasurer, expected to be Mike Baird.

• The estimates only go to 2013-14, BUT … there’s always a ‘but’ … Mr O’Farrell has included a guestimate for 2014-15, not included in the forward estimates by Treasury. The ABC reported

… Claire Curtin from Standard and Poor's says there is no threat to the state's credit rating at this stage.

"A significant proportion of the $4.5 billion number is both outside our outlook horizon and the forward estimates period," Ms Curtin said. …

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/29/3176184.htm

• The new budget report will account for the ‘worst-case’ – it’s what Treasury does for incoming governments.
• It also accounts for the result of Labor’s sale of publicly-owned electricity assets, the extra expenditure involved, including developing a coal mine for a private company, and the subsequent loss of income from them. Former Labor Treasurer, Eric Roozendaal, is responsible for that.

All up – I do not doubt there is a hole in the budget, but I am not sure it’s a big as BOF said.

Perhaps, in the spirit of new ‘accountability’ promised by Mr O’Farrell, he might release the basis of his budget deficit in 2014-15, approximately 42.4 Billion, by his reckoning. Everyone’s allowed one dream per day – I guess I just had mine.

John

Liberals to Rule NSW

Yesterday's election saw the Liberal-National Parties win government in NSW. The Labor Party (ALP) has governed for 16 years. Barry O'Farrell will be the new Premier of NSW. Outgoing Labor Premier, Kristina Keneally, conceded defeat and congratulated Mr O'Farrell last night.

The result has been largely a foregone conclusion. Even before the election campaigning started, polling showed that voters had deserted the ALP. The following table shows 2-Party-Preferred voting intentions of NSW people surveyed from Dec-Jan to March this year.

Month	ALP	Coalition
Dec - Jan	39%	61%
Jan-Feb	38%	62%
March	37%	63%

The figures I saw last night indicated an approximate distribution of 36% ALP and 64% Coalition
Newspoll (http://www.newspoll.com.au/) states that:

These surveys were conducted on the telephone by trained interviewers among voters throughout New South Wales. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution of New South Wales. The latest survey is based on 1,000 interviews among voters. The maximum margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points

That means that, despite a small difference in actual numbers, the polls have essentially showed no statistical change between January and polling day. This means that the election result was not influenced by either leader, nor by their party advertising. Any claims by the Coalition that its campaign advertising about a carbon tax influencing the result will be, at best, ‘spin’. Spin really refers to political false advertising.

The Coalition, as of this morning, expects to have 66 of 93 seats. Of those 66 seats, 17 are held by the National Party; 49 by the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party could govern in their own right. It remains to be seen how much ‘weight’ they will throw around in the joint party room on Monday morning!

Kristina Keneally has indicated she will not stand for the leadership of the ALP in Opposition, saying she believed the new leader should be unencumbered with decisions of the past. Policy and decisions have been made by a few, with their political interests being the driving force. With as few as 19 or 20 Members of the Legislative Assembly, and no new members, the ranks of potential leaders are thin. They include:

• John Robertson, who moved from the Legislative Council (LC) to the Legislative Assembly (LA). He has been the most widely mentioned in the media. He has “baggage”. As representative of Unions NSW, he vigorously, and vociferously, opposed the sale of NSW electricity assets. He was ‘given’ a seat in the LC by the ALP party machine, then promoted to Minister for Transport. Suddenly, his opposition to the sale of our (people-owned) electricity asset wasn’t a problem, and he kept quiet during the sale. As Minister for Transport, he oversaw what many voters believed were myriad problems: ferries, trains, busses.  At best, he will be a party-machine installed stop-gap, who could kick heads. He will not kick heads in the party machine, although that is what is required! after all, they will largely be responsible for the politicking that might well install him as leader. John Robertson has baggage, will likely remain unpopular with voters, and will not win an election.
• Carmel Tebbutt, former Deputy Premier and Minister for Health. She carries less baggage than John Robertson, but hospitals are still a problem area for voters, and she might not have the backroom influence or power that John Robertson is likely to have. This, incidentally, was one of the perceptions about Kristina Keneally. Being personable, hard-working , logical and caring doesn’t count in the current NSW Labor machine, even if those qualities are recognised by voters.  Being from the left faction, Carmel Tebbutt will not be popular with the right-wing party machine.
• Nathan Rees: – ‘been there, done that’, and was not popular with voters, nor with the right-wing of the ALP.

The Coalition will expect to rule NSW for at least 8 years (2 x 4-year fixed terms). It will likely take that long for the NSW ALP to purge the party machine, give more say to rank and file members, and rebuild policies based on the interests of the people of NSW, rather than the interests of some party power-brokers.

John
PS expect the budget in late May 2011 to 'slash and burn', especially the Public Service, a traditional target for incoming governments, with only token trinkets for some newly won seats in western / south-western Sydney and, perhaps, one or two big-ticket schemes to be announced, but not funded, and with no delivery in 2011-12.

NSW Ethics Shmethics

The last Liberal-National government in NSW was led by Nick Greiner. In 1992 the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), which he established, found him to have acted corruptly. This was later overturned in the courts, because what he did in offering Terry Metherell a senior Public Service position was not illegal, and there were no ethical standards for politicians.

“Ian Temby found Premier Nick Greiner had acted corruptly. Greiner had offered a place to Terry Metherell with the purpose of removing him from Parliament to the advantage of the governing party. Eventually, the courts found in Greiner's favour. The court's reasoning was that Greiner had not acted illegally. The sole basis for a finding of corruption was, therefore, if he had breached a code of behaviour by which he was bound. The courts found that, although public servants and other officials were bound by well established codes of behaviour, politicians were subject to none of them. In effect, unless they break the law, politicians can’t be corrupt in NSW because they have no ethics.” (Chis Hurley, 2004) http://www.infotech.monash.edu.au/research/groups/rcrg/publications/0406rmethicsch.pdf

The irony was that Nick Greiner had campaigned partly on the alleged corruption of the previous, Labor, NSW Government, led by Neville Wran.

 

NSW voters, individually and collectively, have a good sense of what is right and wrong. Many see the last-minute changes to regulations by Planning Minster Tony Kelly, to the benefit of Lend Lease, as being unethical, even if not unlawful. So, too, the allegations of document shredding by Labor Ministers and staff will be seen by many as corrupt. It has been reported that current Labor Premier, Kristina Kenneally, has ordered the destruction of “thousands” of potentially damaging sensitive documents, and that she “expect(s) all public servants, be they in the bureaucracy or government advisers, to be following that direction” 

 http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/greens-concerned-at-labor-shredding-documents-before-nsw-election/story-e6frfku0-1226020642333#ixzz1GezirtsZ

 

There is a NSW Parliamentary Ethics Committee. The NSW Parliament website says:

“This Committee has the function of carrying out educative work in relation to ethical standards applying to Members of the Legislative Assembly as well as providing advice on the standards. The Committee can also consider matters of privilege referred by the House.”

However, the Committee can not take any action against any member, even if the member is deemed to have acted unethically! It is toothless.

 

Many people believe political ethics have taken a beating under the current Labor Government. But will an incoming Liberal-National government change the rules if those rules mean its own members & Ministers must adhere to a set of standards not previously achieved in NSW? Remember, too, that elements within the Liberal Party are opposed to ethics classes in NSW public schools.

 

Will anything change? Ethics, Shmethics, if you ask me.

 

John

David Campbell Resigns As Minister

NSW Minister David Campbell has resigned as Minister for Roads & Transport. His resignation follows Channel 7's news story, yesterday, of his visit, outside Parliamentary hours, to a gay men's "club" in Sydney on Tuesday night.

He has taken leave to deal with "family issues" arising from the revelations. Most feel considerable sympathy for his wife and children. His wife has recently battled cancer.

Mr Campbell had previously weathered public and Opposition anger over the bungling of accident & traffic diversion on the F3 Freeway north of Sydney. I believe he should have resigned because,as Minister, he is ultimately responsible for the performance of his Departments.

A number of questions arise from the Channel 7 story:

1. Was there anything illegal in his actions? It appears not: it is accepted that Ministers can use their government cars for private purposes; and it is not illegal to visit gay sex clubs.
2. Was any public interest served? This is a more difficult question. 'Public interest' is difficult to define, but many agree it involves common good or general welfare of society. Channel 7 reports indicated he resigned after questions were put to him about his visit to a gay sex club. If so, that would be wrong of Channel 7. No questions appear to have been asked about what effects, if any, Mr Campbell's lifestyle had on his Ministerial performance, until AFTER the news story. He, and others, have since indicated that it had no effect. That statement is untested, but Channel 7 have presented no evidence to support such a claim. Being a public figure doesn't justify scandal-mongering.
   

I suspect that Channel 7, and the journalist who broke the story, Adam Walters, had little motive other than scandal-mongering for profit. It's not something I'd want to put on my CV. Nor would I want to put "lives a double life" or "unfaithful to family".

John

Keneally First NSW Woman Premier

At a special caucus meeting at 6pm today, the NSW Labor Party dumped its Premier, Nathan Rees, and elected Kristina Keneally with support from Joe Tripodi /Eddie Obeid's Right Faction. They had installed Nathan Rees, from the Party's Left Faction, as Premier just 14 months ago. They'd called Morris Iemma's bluff, and dumped him. Like (dumped Federal Liberal Leader) Malcolm Turnbull, Nathan Rees continued to talk. Correctly, he cited those in the Party who have weekly tried to white-ant him, and his leadership. Like the Liberal Party, the NSW Labor Party will never recover until the likes of Joe Tripodi and Eddie Obeid are gone. Bitter factional power-broking only breeds disloyalty, treachery, and, ultimately, a long time in Opposition.

The Left Faction's Carmel Tebbutt will remain as Deputy Leader.

Just like the Federal Liberal Party, the NSW Labor Party is a (rocky) horror show ...

(Joe Tripodi & Eddie Obeid, wearing black fishnets … I mean eyebrows, and cloaked in developer funds )
It's so fatuous, oh fantasy free us
So you can't see us, no not at all
In a caucus meeting, with manic intention.
Well-secluded, We see all.
With a stab in the back, You're in the Premier’s seat
And nothing can ever be the same
We’re spaced out on power, we are in control
Let's do the Labor backstab!
Let's do the Labor backstab!

(Kristina Keneally, with high-pitched, shrill voice)
Well I was walking down Macquarie Street just a-having a think
When a snake of a guy gave me an evil wink
He took me in, he took me by surprise
He had a Right Faction and developers' eyes.
He stared at me and I said ‘yes’
Ethics meant nothing, never would again
Let's do the Labor backstab!
Let's do the Labor backstab!

(with apologies to all from The Rocky Horror Picture Show)

John

Related article:
http://truepolitik.blogspot.com/2009/12/libs-jump-to-right-with-abbott.html

O'Farrell: is it the Young Right?

NSW Liberal Opposition Leader has been urged by some in his party to clean out some of the "older" members. He has been told they risk becoming an old, one-term government if, as expected, they win the next NSW election.

The "too old" brigade includes Brad Hazzard, who is 58 now, and will be 60 after the next election. Too old?? There are some in their 60's now who, perhaps, might consider retirement - except that they, too, will want to be part of a Liberal-National Party Government. They have not held power since Nick Greiner lost to Bob Carr in 1995. (aside: many could only dream of a generous pension on retirement at 60-odd)

But is that the Party is concerned that those with experience will be too old? We will have to wait and see who they propose to take the place of the "oldies". In my opinion, it is that the more extreme right wing wants its acolytes in a Liberal-National government after the next NSW election in 2011.

John